Routine Workers in an Increasingly Automated World of Work: Evidence from Switzerland
This paper explores the distributional consequences of technological change on midskilled
routine workers in Switzerland in three steps: (1) The first part studies
aggregate trends in the labor market and confirms the pattern of an eroding middle:
The disadvantages of technological progress are concentrated on routine workers
whose share in the labor force has drastically declined over time. (2) In order to
better understand the economic conditions associated with this overall pattern, the
second part draws on individual-level panel data to study actual employment
transitions. The analysis shows that transitions are less frequent than the aggregate
pattern might suggest: Only a minority of routine workers actually switches to other
jobs while the largest chunk of the decline is explained by ‘natural transitions’ into
retirement. (3) The last part of the paper builds on original survey data to examine
routine workers’ subjective assessment of their chances in a changing world of work
and demonstrates a surprisingly high degree of consciousness about susceptibility to
automation. To conclude, I discuss some societal implications of the ‘hollowing of
the middle’.
Keywords: Employment Polarization, Automation, Technological Change, Routine Work, Hollowing of the Middle, Panel Data, Switzerland
Vol: 1/2019 - Article 1.2
